How to add appropriately semi-quantitative "thinking tools" to the analytic arsenal? What components are most vital? Three candidates:

• to Analyze with correct confidence & certainty: Bayesian Thinking (proper updating of beliefs, in the presence of incomplete information and noise)
• to Assess despite chaos & complexity: Systems Thinking (proper use of mental models, with feedback loops and time delays, in constantly-changing situations)
• to Act amidst conflict & cooperation: Game-theoretic Thinking (proper understanding of adversaries and allies, with divergent values, diverse goals, and deceptive strategies)

... all of which are founded upon applied psychology and epistemology and mathematics. Glimpses of good thinking appear in Tetlock ("Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?") and Wohlstetter ("Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision") and Allison/Zelikow ("Essence of Decision") and Gigerenzer and others ...

What else is needed? ... hmmmm, maybe creativity and openness and humility?

_{^z - 2019-06-05}